With the growth of the affluent residential market on the west side of town, the Castle Ranch site is poised to take
advantage of the upcoming boom in development.
The Southern California Association of Governments estimates that the Greater Antelope Valley portion of Los Angeles County
will grow from approximately 500,000 people (currently) to 800,000 by the year 2020. They base this estimate on the following
analysis:
Southern California, not including the San Diego area, will grow by 2.2 million during that time simply in births
minus deaths and the average net migration (the typical number of people moving to So. Cal minus the number of people moving
out of the So. Cal area). Most of the Los Angeles basin is already full. That is, they are not building any new tracts of
houses in Van Nuys or Downey or Long Beach. The new population migrates out to the various expansion areas (for example, Simi
Valley, Agoura, Riverside, Orange County, Antelope Valley) in predictable patterns. Approximately 1/7th of the new growth
tends to migrate to the Antelope Valley. That is 300,000 more people in the next 13 years! That means The Valley's population will increase by 60% during this time. The region has been averaging 7% growth year after year. Some
say this will only happen if there is water, larger freeways, etc. Not true. These new people will move somewhere. If Antelope
Valley has water shortages, so will Simi Valley. If Antelope Valley has overcrowded freeways, so will Orange County.
According to the Los Angeles Times, North Los Angeles County is the fastest growing area in the county. Antelope Valley
is the "the last valley" in Los Angeles County, and one of the last areas in the five-county area with room to grow, considering
environmental restrictions in other counties.
L.A. is on pace to surpass New York as the nation's largest metropolitan area. For the first time in its history, L.A.'s
growth is coming primarily from within, rather than through migration or immigration. In other words, the birthrate is far
exceeding the death rate. While the explosive growth locally has grabbed headlines, researchers emphasized that older urban
areas - long considered built out - have experienced an equal amount of growth. In the last 20 years, 40% of the region's
population growth - more than 2 million people - has occurred in older parts of the region that have virtually no `raw' land.
However these older areas can no longer support the future population surge.
By contrast, the Antelope Valley has land and opportunity for quality growth and infrastructure development. The Antelope
Valley offers homes in the $350,000 range that would sell for $750,000 dollars or more "down below" in the San Fernando Valley and elsewhere.
The housing shortage is exacerbated by the state's economic system that encourages shopping centers and auto malls (sales
tax revenue) and effectively discourages new housing.
Antelope Valley is an area of expansion and development, with a population of 333,150 as of Year 2000 Census. Businesses
ranging from start-ups to national corporations reside in the Antelope Valley, employing a workforce of 60,400. With its proximity
to Edwards Air Force Base, the region remains an aerospace industry center and leading location for advanced flight research
and development. Abundant land, a strong pool of skilled labor, excellent schools, aggressive business incentives, foreign trade and state enterprise zones and pro-business governments have led California Business Magazine to recognize
the Antelope Valley as the "Best Place to Do Business" in the state. The cities of Lancaster and Palmdale offer an ideal location for companies to locate or expand. Major manufacturing and service centers have found these communities
to be a welcome spot to grow.
According to Jeff Meyers, CEO of the Meyers Group;
"Southern California is generating 150,000 new jobs [per year]. Los Angeles County is the sleeping giant; it will generate
75,000 to 80,000 [new jobs annually] and will only do less than 10,000 housing units. With that type of unit volume, L.A.'s
jobs-to-permit ratio is off the charts.
Currently the housing market overall is going to go through a correction in 2007, however the market for the region looks
very strong for 2008 and beyond.
"My prediction is L.A. County will see continuous sales
activity in the Santa Clarita Valley because it is the primarily outlet for new housing. However, I would say Antelope
Valley would become a very viable market primarily because of price increases in the Santa Clarita Valley. The price
disparity between the two markets is becoming pretty enlarged. That's when people will start driving the extra 30 minutes."...
"Overall during the 1980s, Southern California was [producing] close to 60,000 units in a year. Now it is tough for us
to build half that number. There are a couple of reasons for the drop off. Land costs have skyrocketed, limiting the builders'
ability to deliver product. Part of [the blame for] this drop lies with government: anti-growth controls, low-density restrictions
and increased fees all of which are pushing up the price of homes in Southern California."
Looking at the rest of Southern California, the growth in north L.A. County will primarily be in the Santa Clarita and
Antelope Valleys. The San Fernando Valley is getting very high priced starting in the $650,000 range for an 1100 sq. ft. new
house.
Currently, the difference in the price of homes between Santa Clarita and the Antelope Valley is about $200,000. So the
drive up Highway 14 to the high desert can be a substantial cost savings for the prospective home buyer."
Despite its growth, the region continues to cherish the small-town values of a family-oriented community while enjoying
all of the conveniences provided by its rapidly expanding commercial sector.
California's Population is ever more expanding and land is becoming ever more scarce. In 1990 the California Census projected that by the year 2000,
the State of California would reach a population of 30 Million people. They were low in their projection, because by 1998
we had about 33 million residents in California.
According to the California Department of Finance Report, by 2020 the State population will reach 50 Million people. Antelope
Valley is one of the last areas in California that is poised for explosive growth and Castle Ranch offers one of the most
unique opportunities for development in this area.